Is America’s Next President in the Hands of Expats?

Just because you don’t live in America anymore doesn’t mean you don’t have a say in its political future. In fact, with an estimated 4.4 million Americans living abroad (a population larger than many U.S. states) and nearly 3 million of them eligible to vote, the impact American expats could have on the upcoming U.S. elections is formidable.

Given the tightly contested races in the 2024 presidential and Congressional contests, this largely forgotten voting block has the very real potential to influence the next phase of American political activity.

This is particularly true in so-called swing states, where polling indicates the contest is too close to call and the ultimate margin of victory is often razor-thin. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden won the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by fewer than 45,000 votes combined.

If a significant portion of Americans living abroad mobilize, their mail-in ballots or absentee votes could sway the outcome of multiple critical states, potentially determining the winner However this vote turns out, as we recently detailed, a lot of Americans might head for the exits when it’s all said and done.

Crucial Issues for Expats

Informed by the unique experience of living in foreign countries, Americans abroad tend to view politics through a different lens. Issues such as foreign policy, immigration, and the U.S.’s international standing are likely more front-of-mind for them compared to their domestic counterparts.

Many Americans abroad live in countries with more affordable or universal healthcare systems, and this often shapes their views on healthcare policy back home. Progressive candidates who champion Medicare for All or other expansive and inclusive healthcare reforms often resonate more with expat voters.

Foreign policy is another key area where expats have distinct opinions. Living outside the U.S. often provides a new perspective on America’s relationships with other nations, which tends to mean that Americans abroad are more likely to scrutinize a candidate’s approach to diplomacy, trade, and the military.

A candidate’s global vision tends to be more appreciated by—and have a greater influence on—the expat demographic than on voters living in the U.S. One issue that seems to be of equal interest for American citizens and expats alike is taxes. Unlike nearly every other nation, the U.S. taxes its citizens based on citizenship rather than residency, meaning that even those living abroad are required to file U.S. taxes.

For many expats, this is a core source of frustration, as they need to navigate complicated tax rules and potentially face being double taxed. It’s understandable that political candidates who offer ideas on reforming this system often gain significant traction with expat voters.

The Role of Technology

Voting from abroad has become significantly easier in recent years, thanks in large part to advancements in technology. Organizations like Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas are dedicated to helping expatriates navigate the voting process, from registering to vote to submitting absentee ballots.

In some states, voters can now receive and send ballots electronically, which has reduced the logistical challenges previously associated with voting abroad. Social media and digital platforms have also allowed expat communities to organize and communicate more effectively.

Facebook, WhatsApp, and various other online forums connect countless Americans abroad, helping them discuss political issues, encourage voter registration, and share information. This digital infrastructure has greatly increased political engagement among expats, which is expected to lead to higher voter turnout this year.

Expat Impact on 2024

As the 2024 election approaches, both parties are likely to increase their efforts to mobilize expat voters. Democrats, in particular, have traditionally had strong support with the expat demographic. In 2020, Democrats Abroad found that over 90% of their members supported Joe Biden.

However, Republicans Overseas have been working to expand their reach, particularly among expats who are business professionals or in the military. Given the polarized state of U.S. politics, citizens living abroad may be increasingly motivated to get involved, especially if key issues like taxation and healthcare reform are on the ballot.

And, with swing states playing such a decisive role, even a small increase in overseas voter turnout could make a big difference this year.

“When presidential elections come down to several thousand votes in a handful of key swing states, every vote really does count,” Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, recently told Newsweek. “While Americans abroad are not a huge voting bloc, these narrow-margin elections of recent years mean that they could be a decisive voting group in a few closely contested states.”

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The 2024 election is such a race, and may be particularly ripe for expats around the world to exert their influence. Wherever you live, and whomever you plan to vote for, I hope you’ll take a minute to click this link and register to vote.

Aaron Kenedi